Underdog Courser could outflank Hager, Pavlov
MIKE CONNELL THE BIGGER QUESTIONS
July 26, 2010
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Todd Courser may turn out to be the right man in the right place at the right time.
At first glance, he looks to be a Chihuahua-sized underdog in the chase for the Republican nomination in Senate District 25, which combines Lapeer and St. Clair counties.
His opponents — Lauren Hager and Phil Pavlov — are better known and far more experienced in navigating political minefields. Both men have served six years in the Michigan House, the maximum allowed under term limits.
In fact, Hager, a retired teacher and former councilman in Port Huron, was replaced in 2004 by Pavlov, a St. Clair Township businessman who is winding up the last of his three terms.
Now they’re battling for the seat being vacated by Jud Gilbert, who cannot remain in the Senate after two terms and eight years. More about him in a moment.
COURSER ISN’T a political novice, but only because he failed in a bid for the state House two years ago. He lost in the Republican primary to Kevin Daley, who went on to become the only active farmer sitting in the Legislature.
Along with name recognition, Hager and Pavlov also have the advantage of being residents of St. Clair County, home to 65% of the district’s population. Courser lives in Lapeer County where he is a lawyer and an accountant who specializes in bankruptcies and estate planning.
So much for the preliminaries. Why do I suspect Courser is going to win the Aug. 3 primary? For starters, Hager and Pavlov appeal to similar blocs. If you voted for Hager in ’98, ’00 and ’02, the chances are excellent you also voted for Pavlov in ’04, ’06 and ’08.
They’re going to steal votes from each other, and suddenly it makes little difference if Lapeer County contains barely a third of the electorate. No one is going to run away with the vote in St. Clair County.
EVEN MORE significant is Courser’s standing as a darling of the Tea Party.
Hager and Pavlov are tried-and-true conservatives, but Courser is running to the right of them. And he’s running hard.
At a Tea Party gathering in North Branch, he showed considerable skill as a stump speaker.
“Stop the spending, stop the taxing, stop the regulating and get out of our business,” he said. “Return to the Constitution of the United States of America. That’s what it is about. It is simple. It’s not easy, but it is simple.”
Courser dislikes government enough to want to become part of it, which depending on your point of view is either a contradiction or a revelation.
Let me offer an illustration. He and his wife are home schooling their four children, who previously attended Heritage Christian Academy, where he served on the board. He endorses sweeping changes in public schools.
“Michigan has the most expensive education systems in America, and there is far too much overhead eating our education dollars before it ever reaches the classroom,” he said.
THE TEA PARTY is new enough that one can only guess at the depth and breadth of its support.
My guess is either Pavlov or Hager would win the primary if they weren’t bumping heads with each other. I suspect they’ll split the votes of more traditional party members, giving Courser a real chance to run away with this thing.
If he does become the nominee, it may give Democrats an opportunity to pick up support from more moderate Republicans in November. If so, the Democrats would have an outside shot of picking off a seat considered one of the safest in Michigan for the GOP.
A Courser win also would set up an all-Lapeer battle in November. The Democratic primary is a duel between John Nugent, who was re-elected to the Lapeer school board in May, and Jason Blauet, a 31-year-old teacher from Metamora.
Just as no Republican from St. Clair County is running in the 83rd House race, no Democrat from the county joined the Senate chase. In both districts, a majority of the electorate resides in St. Clair County.
TERM LIMITS prevent Gilbert from returning to the Senate, where he’s the influential chairman of the Transportation Committee.
Gilbert, a funeral director from Algonac who has spent the past dozen years in the Legislature, is running for the 81st District House seat.
The 81st has the shape of a butterfly, with one wing stretching southeast to Harsens Island and the other reaching northwest to “The Island” of high ground in Lynn Township. Port Huron Township connects the two wings.
Gilbert served two terms in the House before replacing Dan DeGrow in the Senate in 2002. He is seeking a third and final House term, and if he wins, he’ll be the chamber’s most experienced member.
He’s favored in the primary over Capac’s Peter Frangedakis, who lost to Pavlov two years ago. The winner faces Carol Morrissette of St. Clair Township, who is unopposed on the Democratic side.
LET’S WRAP this up with a look at what is arguably the most important office on the ballot in St. Clair County — an elimination round in the election of a circuit judge to a six-year term.
Mona Armstrong and Cynthia Lane, both of Fort Gratiot, are matched with Jim Downey of Marine City. They hope to take the seat now held by Pete Deegan, who is stepping down after three decades on the bench.
One of the three will fall by the wayside. The top two vote-getters on Aug. 3 advance to the general election on Nov. 2.
Downey, who grew up in Port Huron and graduated from high school in Detroit, practices law in Algonac. His wife, the former Kara Saph, is a descendant of one of the county’s most prominent pioneer families.
Lane, who ran for probate judge two years ago, is married to Alan Simasko, whose family also is well known locally. She is not related to Dan Lane, the former sheriff and an Armstrong supporter.
Armstrong, who once worked for Deegan as a research attorney, is a senior prosecutor who is perhaps best known for sending former Port Huron Mayor Ajax Ackerman to prison, where he’ll be eligible for parole in 2020.
This is a nonpartisan election, so voters who usually toe the party line are on their own. It might help to check out the candidates’ websites: www.armstrongforjudge.com, www.downeyforjudge.com and www.laneforjudge.com.
SINCE THIS is an opinion column, I’ll close with a strongly held one.
By law, judicial candidates in Michigan must be 69 or younger on Election Day. Deegan turns 72 on Sept. 11, making him ineligible for a sixth term.
It’s a silly law. I’m all for testing judicial candidates in much the way we test drivers. If they don’t know
the difference between liable and libel, or if they’re too senile to know the day of the week, then fine, rule them out.
Rather than a meaningful test, we’ve made the easy choice of using age as a measuring stick of ability. It is as arbitrary (if not quite as heinous) as using sex or race to eliminate candidates.
The judge is an outdoorsman who keeps himself in fine physical shape. He’s as fair-minded and as wise as any citizen could wish. He also is at the place in his life where he cannot be cowed or manipulated.
Why would we choose to give him a gold watch and a good riddance? The defense rests.
